Potential: Revealed

Strategic Thinking, Innovative Ideas, Growth Marketing, and Revealing of Potential

Archive for potential

Big Data, Big Results

Recently a client of mine enthusiastically unveiled some fresh results from cross-sell marketing programs they were powering for a network of several dozen financial institutions (FIs).

Their enthusiasm was warranted: the results showed significantly superior improvements in impression-to-purchase ratios over traditional methods. The improvement in fact was over 3 times better!

Big Data Marketing Results Are Better

This is an excellent example of the implementation of Big Data in a direct marketing application.

Traditional methods that an FI uses for targeting (when they use targeting at all;  but that’s another story for another time) usually involve tabulating customer account data (e.g., who has a mortgage but doesn’t have a home equity line of credit?) and purchasing third party data for appending (e.g., demographic data based on zip code of the customer).

I like to call this “Who You Are” data. It is valuable but not rich and often out of date. It is often full of invalid indicators because all you can tell by looking at your account data for a customer is whether they have a home equity account with you … it doesn’t tell you anything about whether they have an account with another FI.

What’s needed is Big Data which is data that comes from many sources, is rich and voluminous (e.g., heavily sourced from transaction systems such as debit and credit card processing, bill payments, money transfers, ACH debits and credits, loan processing, etc.), and is handled by an analytic platform that can make sense of it and deliver it to a point of customer interaction or business decisioning -and if needed, in real time.

With Big Data you can add two key dimensions which I call “How We Behave” (which is a predictor of future behavior) and “What We Can Do” (which parses from the data what we can do based on our financial position and the trends in it). With these three dimensions a marketer trying to effeciently target customers with the right cross-sell offer has the insights needed to deliver superior results.

It is pretty cool! I’ll look forward to sharing more specific and detailed results when they are released soon.

 

 

Advertisements

Not Fearless … “I Just Proceed Nonetheless”

One subject I’ve often discussed with friends and colleagues is about making difficult decisions, the reasoning behind those decisions, and the personal characteristics involved. What are the hallmarks of making good decisions in a challenging environment or situation?

There are many factors but for this post I want to refute – with the help of a wonderful example I found today – one factor that I think is either over emphasized or perhaps not really a factor at all. That factor is: fearlessness.

The definition is “to be free from fear”. If you are faced with a difficult decision whether in a personal sphere, in business, or other arena is a lack of fear a good thing? It certainly might help you get over the hump, so to speak, and to act upon a decision you might have based on your judgment, your morality or ethics, particularly if the consequences for failure are dire enough (e.g., failed business, failed relationship, even life-or-death).
This has always troubled me though. I just seems that as humans we all have fears and given they are seemingly universal then those fears are there for some useful purpose (and we should be paying attention to them!).

SpaceX, the company founded by Elon Musk sent the Dragon spacecraft to the International Space Station

Yet I like this interview of Elon Musk, founder of Paypal, SpaceX and Tesla Motors (and he’s only 41!). Especially the last line of this part of the interview:

“I wouldn’t say I have a lack of fear. In fact, I’d like my fear emotion to be less because it’s very distracting and fries my nervous system. I have this sort of feeling that something terrible could happen, like all of our flights could fail and Tesla could fail and SpaceX could fail, and that feeling of anxiety has not left me, even though this has been a great year. So I feel fear quite strongly; I just proceed nonetheless.

I would say that fear is part of what stokes Elon’s drive and his attention to what is important in his business decisions. Fear is a means but the end – the decision to and actually act – is all about bravery. To move ahead despite the risk, despite the fears is a concious act, not an unconcious act (as fearlessness seems to be, at least to me).

So, may you recognize your fears. Confront them and use them to inform your decisions. Then summon your bravery to act with confidence on the decisions you have made, or as Elon says “just proceed nonetheless“.

(P.S. read the rest of the interview with Elon Musk. It is quite interesting.)

Mobile Payments: Informative Hype

News and hype about all the things we can – and are supposed to one day be able to – do with our mobile phones is itself an industry. As with most emerging technologies with great potential this is a natural phemonema. Recently I saw this infographic published and found it to be both well done and informative (if not in and of itself also adding to the hype it hopes to cut through). I thought I’d share it here also and invite commments.

Personally I think the approach by Starbucks has the most promise in terms of generating real evidence about what level of interest and usage might exist with a mobile payments solution. Since it is Starbucks-only it is simple and not as subject to complex technology and adoption issues (e.g., point of sale technology updated or replaced to enable mobile payment acceptance, training and customer service issues of high-turnover retail sales personnel) that plague the other types below.

And it is not an insignificant fact that the ONLY mobile payment type that has any traction  today is the one used to buy relatively low importance, low priced things like ringtones and games. And outside the U.S., where supposedly adoption and usage has dwarfed the U.S., the by-far leading uses are parking and other incidental transportation purchases. This after a decade of hype that mobile payments were going to take over all manner of payments across the globe.  Seems like great potential is still yet to be fully and clearly revealed. Stay tuned (and wary).

The most important mobile payment infographic. Ever.

The most important mobile payment infographic. Ever.
Compliments of MobilePaymentsToday.com

Hammer in search of a nail?

With this post I will give a bit of plug to a good, relatively new blog on all the latest in the world of Payments.

There is plenty of buzz (and spin!) regarding Apple’s foray into “contactless payments” and how it might validate and accelerate an emerging trend. When I read CNN.com’s headline  “The end of credit cards is coming” my natural skepticism went on high alert. A post on Payments.com by Karen Webster, partially in response to CNN’s article and the issue overall, really hit the nail on the head.

It is fun and compelling to learn about a heretofore unmet – or better yet, unknown! – consumer need that has been splendidly filled by an innovative and heroic entrepreneur. Even better if it is Steve Jobs and Apple – the darling, so far, of the first decade or so of the 21st century. The foreseeing of the unforeseeable is often referred to as unlocking “latent” demand. Demand we didn’t even know existed or in ways we didn’t foresee. Sometimes it happens and I’ve written about it on this blog and elsewhere.

The Payments.com post, however, pointed out that both unlocking latent consumer demand for mobile, contactless payments may not have arrived just yet. Karen pointed out many industry factors, ranging from too many competing approaches to too few points of sale (POS) for acceptance (and daunting costs to enable the millions of POS devices functioning perfectly well today across the country without “contactless” capabilities).

The most glaring thing missing in my opinion is less technological and more fundamental: the lack of a compelling value proposition to the parties involved (made up of consumers, payments processors & networks, and merchants). Is there a compelling value proposition to be had? If not, is there really any latent demand? Are we all really, unknowingly so far, just waiting for a way to ditch our current payment methods (e.g,. cash, debit and credit cards, gift cards, checks) for one that uses our mobile phones instead? While none are perfect are the available methods broken and of low enough utility to be replaced?

My comments to Karen’s post (you can find them here):

“It should be noted that Apple’s business model and track record is to be closed (a profitable strategy, no doubt), and another key player the mobile networks are notoriously closed and seeking a way to corner any market for themselves and control / disallow other alternatives.

Along with the sheer steepness of the adoption Karen points out, I think these forces will make it hard to see any widespread adoption soon. Forecasts so far are mostly hype.

Personally I also don’t see the creation of a compelling value proposition which is always required to unlock the so-called latent demand for a mobile & contactless payment alternative (other than the “cool” factor, and for certain high traffic environments where checkout speed might have high marginal value). Current consumer demand for payment methods is well satisfied without NFC (Near Field Communications)-enabled phones.”

Spouting opinions is fun. I gave mine – what’s yours?

Beyond First Impressions

There are many stories that fascinate me about the tremendous potential of individuals being hidden behind personal peculiarities and foibles. Even more interesting are when two or more of these individuals are put together and become creators or catalysts of a great breakthrough.

This is fascinating to me for a couple of reasons. One is a common theme I like to write about which is the failure to see the potential of each individual when preconceptions or prejudice get in the way. The other is related: sometimes it takes individuals who are subject to the preconceptions or prejudice, thrown together for some reason (purposefully, through serendipity or other means), to mutually unlock the potential and power its fruition.

These individuals can often have singular talents which consume them in some way and lead them to ignore more mundane social or personal needs and habits. Think of Einstein, the brilliant theoretical physicist, who often could not recall how to get home after walking about and pondering a problem for hours, who didn’t bother combing his hair … or to wear socks.

Perhaps this ability (or inability?) to pay much attention to personal or social issues and norms – and further, not giving them attention in others — clarifies and focuses attention on some hidden potential buried in outside-the-box thinking, ideas, and visions.

One example is Johann Kepler and Tycho Brahe. Who are these guys? Tycho Brahe was the court mathematician and astronomer to King Frederic II and known throughout scholarly Europe at the time as the most knowledgeable person in the realm of the sky and the stars. He had meticulously and obsessively documented the movement of the planets, the moon, and the positions of all the stars that populated the nighttime skies. This repository of data and knowledge Brahe put together was in and of itself a marvelous feat of that or any time. He was a man of some means and had a world class observatory and institute of science and mathematics that he oversaw. It was home to many scholars and served to advance and spread knowledge about the heavens.

One young man who came to work with Brahe was Johannes Kepler. Where Brahe excelled in the detailed and meticulous world of scientific observation, Kepler was a theoretician who excelled in the world of conceptualizing and synthesizing many points of observation and fact.

Interestingly and by contrast, Brahe was an imposing figure – physically and in demeanor. He was seen as aristocratic and despotic, passionate and very eccentric. Kepler was thin, almost sickly, very near sighted, neurotic and disheveled. His father had been a solider for hire and his mother was an accused but acquitted witch who was said to enjoy psychedelic drugs. Perhaps the one common trait both had was a driven nature that conveyed to others arrogance and self-centeredness.

Kepler came to see that the observed facts Brahe had cataloged about the position and movement of the objects in the sky did not support the still widely accepted model of Aristotle and others that said the Earth was the center and the Sun and planets revolved around it. Nor did Brahe’s data support the newer model of Nicolas Copernicus (that Brahe believed in), developed by Copernicus a century earlier. Copernicus’ model rightly put the Sun in the center and Earth and the other planets orbiting around it. Copernicus’ model while correct generally, was flawed however, as it said the Earth and the planets traveled in perfectly circular orbits.

Kepler’s irritable and confrontational nature though made it difficult for him to get others to listen to his views and ideas. It was Brahe, for less than altruistic reasons (he feared his pupil might surpass him), who framed a challenge and focused Kepler on a part of the problem which led to a breakthrough model of the universe. One that is used to this day.

Brahe challenged Kepler to determine a model and equations that would accurately predict the path of Mars’ orbit. He knew that since Mars was close in proximity to Earth that a very precise model would be required to make accurate predictions. Mars would be the true test of Kepler’s ability to prove what he had been grumbling about. Kepler boasted it would take him 8 days to meet Brahe’s challenge. 8 years later, Kepler was still working out the solution.

Eventually, Kepler did come up with the model and equations to prove that the orbital path of Mars about the Sun was elliptical, not circular. Indeed the orbital motion of all the planets in our solar system can be described as elliptical. An interesting footnote is that Brahe died not long after issuing the Mars challenge to Kepler and did not live to find out whether his pupil met the challenge – and find out that indeed the student far surpassed the teacher in fame and stature.

Johannes Kepler is a key figure in the scientific revolution. His work provided one of the foundations for Issac Newton’s theory of Universal Gravitation. Imagine though if Brahe and others would have let their impressions of him lead them to disregard or sideline him. It can be argued that what he discovered might just have been found later and if so, today, 400 years later, we would hardly notice the difference or care if someone other than Kepler got credit.

It should be noted however, that in Kepler and Brahe’s time they were just emerging from a time well known as the Dark Ages. A time of scientific repression and repression of many other insidious sorts. A time in which someone of Kepler’s mind and approach would have been summarily dismissed – or worse – declared heretical.

The Dark Ages lasted more than 1000 years.

Odds are you nor I are currently working with or know the next Johannes Kepler. Yet we’ve all known or know people who have talents, sometimes singular and amazing, that fight to shine beyond personal faults and social awkwardness. Many of us have failed to recognize these talents. Either in hindsight or in the moment we chose the easy path of discarding the whole person, along with their potential, to avoid dealing with their perceived negative traits. As a leader, colleague, friend, and mentor I for one want to do a better job of dealing with others on their merits, even when they are hard to see, and resisting the easy path of avoidance or disregard.

Working Together: Great Potential Revealed

Spring and summer have been busy work-wise, and lazy otherwise. The combination of hard work and the opportunity, through abundance of summery weather and a relaxing time away with family, to do nothing much has also given me time to read some interesting books.

Recently I’ve gotten hooked on science and history – in particular the rise in the early 20th century of quantum mechanics in physics. I have been amazed at how individually brilliant these scientists were and how incredible their vision and discoveries were. Imagining and then doing the math and experiments to prove what they imagined, in a time with no computers, little funding, and few sophisticated laboratory tools is the epitome of the human spirit and thirst for knowledge and understanding.

What I’ve also learned that was true and critical to the discoveries made was the collaboration and sharing that occurred. There were plenty of rivalries and some conflicts but given the stakes – and the potential for fame – there was more openness than secrecy. These remarkable men and women – Einstein, Curie, Fermi, Szilard, Meitner, Oppenheimer, Dirac and many others – were of varying nationalities and located across Europe, plus America and Asia. Again in a time of no computers or internet, they made a conscious investment – which was non-trivial given the communication challenges of the age – in publishing their discoveries, writing to each other regularly, and attending formal and informal gatherings where theories, approaches and findings were presented and debated.

 
They seemed to know that their ideas were worth far less if they hid them. They knew they’d be more valuable if they invited others to learn about them, debate or challenge them and add to them. Or perhaps that their individual ideas and theories were just small parts of a huge body of unknowns that one of them could not possibly explain alone. If they wanted to be successful – be part of explaining the universe – they had to cooperate with others.

Together they were discovering more deeply how the universe works, at the atomic and then sub atomic levels. Imagining and then proving that atoms existed and contained electrons, protons and neutrons. Imagining and then proving that even smaller things existed such as quarks, gluons and other interestingly-named particles. Imagining and then proving that atoms could be split – and fused. Some, such as Einstein, at times wished they’d never had their great thoughts or published them — since it led in 1945 to the deaths of more than 100,000 Japanese citizens in a matter of seconds with dropping of bombs. Bombs with innocent sounding names like Fat Boy and Little Man.

Yet there is no denying that there have been many positive aspects to what these people discovered and helped the world to understand. It has and continues to change the world as we know it.

And their approach to innovation and knowledge sharing can teach us a great deal about what can happen when the potential of new ideas is fueled by a spirit of cooperation and sharing for the common good.

If you are interested at all in what I’ve been reading, here’s a few selected titles:

The Story of Science: Einstein Adds A New Dimension by Joy Hakim – actually a great middle school to early high school text book. If all children had books written by and teachers like Joy Hakim, we’d have more kids interested in science. Her writing is fun and informative.

Einstein: His Life and Universe by Walter Isaacson 

A Short History of Almost Everything by Bill Bryson

A Great One Passes

The most indelible memory I have of growing up in Michigan was listening to Detroit Tiger games late at night throughout the summer. I’d be in my bed with the window open and possibly a slight breeze blowing in. The lights would be off and my transistor radio was under my pillow — so I could listen to the games even though my parents had long earlier told me to go to sleep. If it was a West coast game and well past midnight local time, I often fell asleep with the voices of the game playing in my dreams.

The voice I remember most clearly for all those games – I probably listened to 100’s of them — was of Ernie Harwell. He was the voice of the Detroit Tigers for 40 years. Ernie passed away today, May 4, 2010. He was 92 years old.

'So gracious and kind¡¦Âƒp

As America seems to regularly produce, his life story is one of rising to great heights and reaching potential not clearly evident at the start of his life.

He was born in 1919 in Washington, GA a younger contemporary of Ty Cobb, also of hot, flat and sparsely populated area of rural south Georgia. It is interesting he would end up, as Ty Cobb did, with the Tigers. Where Ty Cobb was ornery and remembered as a difficult man. Ernie Harwell was almost completely the opposite.

He was born with a severe speech defect. Through therapy and forcing himself to participate in debates and classroom discussions, he had overcome the handicap by the time he graduated from Emory University.

Harwell’s big break came in unusual fashion.

Brooklyn Dodgers radio broadcaster Red Barber became ill in 1948, and general manager Branch Rickey needed a replacement. After learning that the minor league Atlanta Crackers needed a catcher, Rickey sent catcher Cliff Dapper to Atlanta and Harwell joined the Dodgers. It is the only time a player was traded for an announcer in major league history.

Through his challenges with his voice, growing up in rural and relatively poor south Georgia, and needing a break as lucky as the one he got with the Dodgers, it is amazing he ended up making a living with his voice, doing so at the highest level of excellence. And what a voice it was. I don’t think I’ll ever forget its sound. And I hope I don’t.

He announced in September 2009 that he’d been diagnosed with inoperable cancer of the bile duct. He took the news with characteristic poise, saying he planned to continue working on a book and other projects.

“Whatever happens, I’m ready to face it,” Harwell told The Associated Press on Sept. 4.

“In my almost 92 years on this earth, the good Lord has blessed me with a great journey,” Harwell said at a microphone behind home plate when honored by the Tigers at a home game immediately after he announced his cancer diagnosis. “The blessed part of that journey is that it’s going to end here in the great state of Michigan.”

On Tuesday, Senator Carl Levin said this on the floor of the U.S. Senate: “All of Michigan will miss the sound of his voice telling us that the winter is past, that the Tigers had won a big game, or that they’d get another chance to win one tomorrow. We will miss his Georgia drawl, his humor, his humility, his quiet faith in God and in the goodness of the people he encountered. But we will carry in our hearts always our love for him, our appreciation for his work, and the lessons he gave us and left us and that we will pass on to our children and grandchildren.”

Perhaps one of the greatest facts about Ernie was that he was married to his wife, LuLu, for 67 years. I’m sure she misses him more than any of us possibly can.

But for me, I know I will miss that voice. God Bless You, Ernie Harwell.